Depression Scenario = S&P 500 At 900, Gold Up 40%: Source

The most likely scenario for 2016 is for continued low growth and low inflation, notes multi-asset research from Source, but in a 31 page report consideration for stagflation and recession as well as boom times – and the appropriate portfolio mix for each situation – is outlined, but a depression scenario cannot be ruled out.

Economy and its probability paths will drive markets in 2016

Considering probability paths for economic activity, and the resulting stock market reactions, the institutional report titled "Beyond the madding crowd" cited five central probability paths, each assigned a likelihood.

The “central scenario” sees low growth and low inflation and estimated gross...