China Debt Buildup One Of The Largest In History: Goldman

China’s level of debt sets it apart from EM peers, and the rate of its debt buildup is nearly unparalleled

It turns out that China hasn’t just had a credit-fuelled expansion, it’s had one of the biggest in modern times. As new debt becomes less effective at creating growth, we’re approaching the point where a crash becomes increasingly likely and research from Goldman Sachs shows that a larger buildup usually means a harder fall.

“China’s debt buildup since the global financial crisis ranks as one of the largest in recent history (in the 97th percentile of debt-to-GDP changes in a sample of 55 countries over the past 50 years),” write Goldman Sachs analysts Andrew Tilton, Ken Ho, and MK Tang....